Peter Schwartz

 ·         Author:  Peter Schwartz

 o     Strategy consultant/Pres of Global Business Network

 ·         Publishing:  Crown Business:1991/6

 ·         Central Proposition: 

<span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Through exploration of realistic scenario-based planning, an organization can remain more nimble and prepared to operate in an uncertain future. "The scenario process provides a context for thinking clearly about the impossibly complex array of factors that affect any decision...The end result is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future." - xiv, 9

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">***Good example: Rehearse for 3 plays and you don't know what you're going to perform until you walk out on stage and observe the set detail - 191

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Again, this seems like something that's more review for this level of graduate course - also reflects JOPP again

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level1lfo1; tab-stops:list.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:black"> ·         <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Supporting Information <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Make strategic "decisions that will be sound for all plausible scenarios" - xiv

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Not saying scenarios WILL exist, just that they COULD - 13

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Research is key - both about the particular scenarios and about the world in general (become well-read, kp an open mind) - 60/68

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">What to look for: Sci/tech, perception-shaping events (watch TV to understand what ppl believe), music (still true?), fringes (not yet legitimized but not fully rejected by center) - 62-69

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">JOPP

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Driving forces (often fall w/in society, tech, economics, politics, environment - 105) = COGs - 101

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Predetermined Elements = Assumptions (either true or will consider them true to allow planning to proceed) - 109

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Critical Uncertainties = CCIRs (find them by questioning your assumptions about predetermined elements - 115) - 114

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Red Team - 196

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Key Indicators - 198

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Seems to have gotten it pretty spot-on w/ global teenager - un/der-employed and disaffected w/ archipelago created by connectivity - 119; susceptible to pandering (AQ) - 127

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">"String of rock videos about fighter pilots - 125

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">**Types of Plots (Good memory joggers/get creativity flowing)

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Winners & Losers - zero-sum competition - 141

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Challenge & Response - continual adjustment to overcome challenges - 144

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Evolution - e.g. technology or perhaps urban growth - 147

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">ETC: Revolution, Cycles, Infinite Possibility, Lone Ranger, My Generation (cultural aspects can play a part) - 151-156

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">You should train yourself to recognize plots - 160

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Be wary of unbroken line - assuming conditions that change that do not engender any response - 159

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Scenarios for 2005

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:1.25in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level3lfo1; tab-stops:list1.25in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;mso-fareast-font-family:Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family:Wingdings;color:black"> §    <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">New Empires (173), Market World (rising tide raises all boats - efficiency of market) (178), Change w/out Progress (competition run rabid - oscillations, very little rhyme or reason) (184)

<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:.75in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:normal;mso-list:l0level2lfo1; tab-stops:list.75in"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"CourierNew";mso-fareast-font-family: "CourierNew";color:black"> o     <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"TimesNewRoman";mso-fareast-font-family: "TimesNewRoman";color:black">Off the rails - "unacceptable practices" - 208

<p class="MsoNormal">

<p class="MsoNormal">