Allison

Name of Book: Essence of Decision ''' '''

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Author:''' 'Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow ' '''



Author’s background, profession, or known biases:

 -           Allison is director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He served as special advisor to the SECDEF under Pres. Reagan and ASD for Policy & Plans under Pres. Clinton.

 -           Zelikow is professor of History at the Univ of Virginia. He helped w/the 9/11 commission from ’03-’04. Has a law degree from Univ of Houston.



Publisher & date: New York: Longman, 0-321-01349-2; first published in ‘71 

Thesis : (Ways to conduct analysis)

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2">During a period of extensive “rational actor / expectation” theories. Allison developed three lenses in which international relations/politics & policy could be reviewed/enhanced if used. Rational Actor model, Organizational Behavior model, and Governmental Politics model.

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">Major Arguments:'''<span style="color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2"> '''

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> -            <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Model 1: Rational Actor Model (or Classical Model)  <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">: Unitary decision maker (284) & Analytical Paradigm (23). Runs on a “ logic of consequences ”. Action based on rational choice; seek to maximize value.

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Explains foreign policy behavior through an analysis of interests at stake. What must be explained is an “action”; that actor was a “national government”; each action is a calculated solution to a strategic problem; intends to show what the Gov’t was pursuing when it acted and how that action was a “reasonable choice” for the nation’s objectives. (15)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o     <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Key concepts  <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191"> for “rational” actor: Goals/objectives, alternatives, consequences, & choice (18)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Must explain an “action/behavior” that reflects purpose or intention. The Gov’t is the actor (15)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Universality: Does not take into account cultural differences

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> -            <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Model 2: Organizational Behavior Model:  <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191"> Bounded rationality / Bounded Actions

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Assumes routines/processes of national security organizations shape pursuit of national goals

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Emphasizes distinctive logic, capacities, culture, and procedures of the large organization that constitute a Gov’t (5)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level3 lfo1"><span style="font-family: Wingdings; color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings"> §   ''' <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Logic of appropriateness '''

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Behavior of organizations can be determined primarily by routines established prior to the instance (144)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> -            <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Model 3: Governmental Politics Model  <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191"> – Foreign affairs are neither as unitary choice or as organizational outputs.  Logic of Power 

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Gov’t behaviors are a result of “bargaining games” amongst the principals of national Gov’t (255). The players in Gov’t “represent” a department of agency (256)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">If a Gov’t performed an action, that action was the result of bargaining among players in the game (6)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #365f91; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Unit of analysis is the “group of actors” who are close to the deciding power

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level3 lfo1"><span style="font-family: Wingdings; color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings"> §   <span style="color: #365f91; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">Who’s got access to power (the President)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level3 lfo1"><span style="font-family: Wingdings; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings"> §   <span style="color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2">The group output is collective, but not a result of what any one individual would have developed

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 2in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level4 lfo1"><span style="font-family: Symbol; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol"> ·          <span style="color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2">Based on bargaining to achieve the result

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">Supporting Evidence to Argument:

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> -           Model 1: Rational Actor Model

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o     Classical Realism:  Humans are motivated to seek domination of others (26); making politics amount nations a struggle for power – realpolitik

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o     Neorealism (Structural Realism  ): Bad things happen when even good states find themselves in bad spots. Strong tendency towards “Balance in the System”, (31)…Waltz

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o     International Institutions:    Insist international institutions are necessary to explain state action (34). Focus on system-wide institutions and interactions as cause for state cooperation.

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o     Liberalism:  Democracies don’t war against other democracies (36)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> -           Model 2: Organizational Behavior Model

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    Gov’ts can be understood less as deliberate choices and more as “outputs” of large organizations functioning according to a standard patter of behaviors.

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level3 lfo1"><span style="font-family: Wingdings; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings"> §   Organizations, created capabilities, constrain behavior, organizational culture shapes behavior, organizations less analogous to individuals than to technology or bundles of tech (145-146)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> -           Model 3: Governmental Political Model

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    Sees “no unitary” actor but many actors as “players”:  Players not focused on a single issue but diverse international problems; make decisions not by a single, rational choice but pulling/hauling of politics (255)

<p style="text-indent: -0.25in; margin: 0in 0in 0pt 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New'; color: #1f497d; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"> o    Leaders are influenced by their place (power) and peculiar responsibilities, the singular burden that falls on one person with ultimate authority (383)

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">Conclusions: (pg. 230)

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"> The need for all three lenses exists for the strategist. When searching for answers to a puzzle, limiting the options to achieve potential outcomes may create unintended consequences and create “paradigm analysis paralysis”.

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">'''<span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">

'''

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">Why is this important to me as a Strategist?

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2">May help shape foreign policy, policy making and analysis based on a decline of shared conceptual values and interests, and weight of government bureaucracy, interest groups, and their advocates within the Executive and Congress (389). Helps create baseline standards for theorists looing to use this model

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2">

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2">Like the Cuban missile crisis – best to use all three lenses to help discern what happened and potentially why…to potentially help shape future actions/response when the need arises.

<span style="font-family: 'Calibri', 'sans-serif'; color: #1f497d; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">If reviewing an issue, may be best to create 3 separate groups and have one evaluate each area: individual, organization, and closest to the decision maker. May bring a broader perspective.